2026 Could Bring More Instability or Huge Progress in the Middle East

Special Report for Paid Subscribers: Iran, Gaza, Yemen, Somaliland, the Gulf, Israel and more

The outgoing year, just the one preceding, was a time of war in the Middle East, but also of strategic realignment. 2026 should be the year when it becomes clearer whether the changes are permanent and a time of peace is coming. There are reasons to be optimistic, but it will require courage by the Arabs, a global firewall against Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas, and an electoral upheaval in Israel. Meanwhile, as 2025 winds down, there are signs of a breakdown in Yemen.

So after a year in which the Middle East featured prominently on the world stage, and in the wake of a bizarre meeting between Trump and Netanyahu (this one in Palm Beach, adding to the absurdity — see video above), it’s time for an AQL Special Report — a deep dive into a region that keeps on giving to journalists, but has been a lot less munificent to most of the people who have to live there.

There are two days left in our unprecedented 40% discount on a Paid Subscription — through New Years Day. Join our community and unlock full access and commenting rights while supporting independent journalism at a time of crisis for the news media — which is a problem for anyone who cares about a culture of reason in the world.

Let’s start with a quick rundown.

Iran, once the confident maestro of the “axis of resistance,” ends 2025 diminished and unsteady. The June thrashing knocked out key elements of its nuclear and missile infrastructure and exposed the regime’s basic vulnerability: it can export mayhem, but it remains unable to defend its own turf against a determined coalition — or even provide water to its people. That has not produced regime change, but it has badly dented the aura of inevitability that the Islamic Republic had cultivated since the 1979 revolution – and it has driven the leadership even deeper into the arms of Russia and China, leaving its proxies more exposed.

Hezbollah is the prime example. The movement, after a year was firing rockets at Israel, was finally badly thrashed by the Jewish state in the fall of 2024, and now faces a globally-backed effort by the country’s wobbly government to fully disarm it. What’s left of Hamas, which still controls half of Gaza with most of the population, faces similar demands after Israel acceeded to Trump’s demand to wind down the two-year war in September.

All of this forms the backdrop to Netanyahu’s strangely triumphant year-end – and to the choices Israelis will face in 2026. In the meeting with Trump, Netanyahu got almost everything he wanted.

Trump not only backed potential renewed bellicosity versus Iran and Gaza (justified saber-rattling in my view in light of Hamas’ refusal to disarm and Iran’s insistence on rebuilding its nukes and ballistic missile program) but also called for Netanyahu to be pardoned in his bribery trial and asserted that Israel would not exist if not for the brave and heroic prime minister. So far, so absurd. Netanyahu hardly needs additional messaging for his reelection campaign in 2026 (he can leave out Trump’s nonsensical assertions, including that peace has come to the Middle East and that the war had lasted 3,000 years).

Before we get back to Israel, though, let’s dive into the news of the hour: A dangerous new front has opened up in Yemen.