A Completely Pointless Tariff War

And other things you'd get from a US president who is an enemy agent

If I were the president of the United States and secretly in the pay of an enemy power like Russia, China, or Iran, what would I do? That’s right! I would start a tariff war for no conceivable reason.

Tariffs are among the most studied of economic tools, and the history is clear: They can sometimes be effective if part of a carefully structured, long-term industrial policy — but broad, unfocused tariff wars do mostly harm. Tariffs work in specific and temporary circumstances that don’t currently prevail.

Tariffs have had success when used strategically to protect nascent industries, and have helped countries build up their domestic production capabilities. Alexander Hamilton used tariffs in the early days of the United States to foster industrialization. Post-World War II, Japan and South Korea implemented selective tariffs to nurture key industries like automotive and electronics, allowing them to compete globally once those sectors matured.

But they must be handled with great care. The 1930 Smoot-Hawley act was designed to protect American industries during the Great Depression. It led to a collapse in global trade and devastated the US economy. Countries retaliated, American exports plummeted, and unemployment soared.

The tariffs on Chinese goods during Donald Trump’s first term had some limited success in forcing China to the negotiating table — but ultimately led to higher costs for US businesses and consumers, and China retaliated by cutting US agricultural imports, dealing a major blow to American farmers.

So yeah, if I were an enemy agent I’d double down on China and for good measure slap a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, effective today. I’d then watch with joy as they announce reciprocal tariffs.

It would be a gloriously stupid move, because instead of protecting new industries, these tariffs would be mostly imposed on raw materials and intermediate goods, the building blocks of American industry. So who will suffer? US manufacturers, US workers, and US consumers. The cost of gasoline will rise because even though the US is a net energy exporter, Canada is its largest outside energy source, supplying 60% of all US crude oil imports, 25% of US refineries' feedstock, and 99% of US natural gas imports (which are small). The bottom line is that the cost of homes will rise because Canadian lumber is critical to construction, and the cost of cars will rise because auto parts crisscross North America before reaching US driveways.

There would be no economic rationale for this, and no crisis requiring this response. To put this into perspective, the United States' trade relationships with Canada and Mexico are substantial and somewhat balanced. In 2022, US goods and services trade with the two neighbors totaled an estimated $1.8 trillion. Exports were $789.7 billion; imports were $974.3 billion, resulting in a goods and services trade deficit of $184.6 billion, which is a blip. Disrupting these vital economic relationships with ill-conceived tariffs is not just counterproductive — it is self-destructive.

So what I’d do is flood the zone with bullshit. I’d say, for example, that this move will somehow fight fentanyl. The fentanyl epidemic is a real and tragic issue, but tariffs have never been a tool for fighting the drug trade. We do not tax aluminum to stop cartel activity. We do not put tariffs on wheat and expect drug smugglers to go out of business. It would be the most ridiculous justification for a tariff in history — and so might earn me a bonus from Moscow, Beijing or Tehran. I’d also try to freak out the markets by suggesting that I don’t know how tariffs work, saying things like China will pay them, so that the markets are spooked by America being led by an idiot.

All this would deliver an economic shock that will hurt US retirement accounts, businesses, and household budgets. Ideally, the ripple effects would be not just limited to North America but would harm Europe as well, greatly pleasing my paymasters as supply chains are thrown into chaos.

Oh, I could talk about tariffs all day! But there is other work to be done, and it’s no less interesting. If I were secretly trying to weaken America as an enemy agent, starting a moronic tariff war would be just one step. Here are some others:

• Hint at abandoning NATO, because weakening the world’s most powerful alliance would destroy American hard power and embolden its enemies.

• Eviscerate USAID, crushing America’s soft power and creating a vacuum enabling China and Russia to expand influence in developing countries.

• Abandon Ukraine, acting like I don’t know who started the war, and effectively handing at least 20 percent of its territory to Russia, proving that the US is an untrustworthy ally and that one administration’s grant might be retrofitted as a loan by the next.

• Say stupid nonsense with a straight face, like suggesting that all 2.2 million people in Gaza will leave the territory, and that the US can “buy” and “own” it and build resorts there — because when the president is a clown, America’s enemies are emboldened.

• Put the world’s richest man in charge of firing thousands of middle-income workers, while endangering the entitlements of the poor, because helpless despair among Americans would be a gift to its adversaries.

• Send my minions to flirt with far-right and neo-Nazi parties across Europe, wiping out America’s post-WWII legacy as a global leader of liberal democracy, and ceding for many years any moral high ground — because a scumbag’s paradise is a world in which everyone’s a scumbag.

• Hint at unconstitutional acts, like staying in office beyond the term limit, because a constitutional crisis in America would assist authoritarians everywhere by making democracy look unstable and dangerous.

• Put a leading vaccine skeptic in charge of the nation’s health system and start seeding the message that polio went away all by itself, because an unhealthy America is precisely what Russia, China, and Iran want most.

• Push classic Republican policies like opposing gun control, restricting healthcare, and trying to ban abortion — because most Americans hate them, and my employers hate most Americans. I might even get a raise!

Grim, grim business. I’d certainly cause some harm. So isn’t it a lucky break that I’m not a US president who’s an agent of Russia, China or Iran?