A grim anniversary — and a better way forward

Despite the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, the West will again need to become involved. Business as usual is not working and will backfire.

A year ago, there was reason to believe that President Joe Biden was on a cusp of a major geopolitical victory, coaxing Israel and Saudi Arabia into an economic and strategic normalization arrangement that could be game-changing for the Middle East. All that has crumbled into dust, with the latest lowlight being Iran firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles into Israel last week.

The world is now bracing for Israel’s counterstrike, with even the cautious U.S. administration saying it will work with Israel to make sure it is severe. It looks like it may be a bit of theater, but what is clear is that the region is now in darkness, the entire world is on edge, and it is easy to despair.  But there is a positive way forward, if the will can be summoned.

The real date to keep in mind is not so much Oct. 7 — the anniversary of Hamas’ invasion of Israel and massacre of 1,200 that launched the war — but Nov. 6, the day after the presidential election in the United States. On that day the U.S. leadership will be freed of political constraints and might find the courage to bulldoze ahead with a paradigm shift.

First, let’s consider what just happened.

An Israel-Saudi deal would have been a win-win, perhaps especially for Israel— a smallish country with stupendous ambition whose 2022 per capita income surpassed that of Germany, France, and Britain and which is a world-beater in tech innovation and attracting venture capital. It thought the Palestinian problem was contained and looked forward to a strategic partnership with the most important economy in the Arab Middle East.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s number-two oil producer, would finally get rehabilitation—no small thing after having produced most of the 9/11 terrorists, filled Europe with fanatical Wahhabi preachers, killed Washington Post pundit Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey, saddled its people with a century’s worth of corrupt monarchy, and for decades dabbled in nonsense like denying women the right to drive and banning cinemas.

Instead, the Hamas massacre (and the taking of some 250 hostages) caused Israel to counter-invade, and its effort to remove Hamas from power in the territory is believed to have killed over 40,000 (perhaps a third militants); the IDF is now mired in an insurgency in a Gaza that has been thoroughly trashed. On Oct. 8, Hezbollah, like Hamas an Iranian-backed proxy, began attacking Israel from Lebanon with rockets, shells, and drones, displacing some 60,000 Israelis; this week, having assassinated most of the Hezbollah leadership, Israel launched a ground invasion of south Lebanon.

Meanwhile Yemen’s Houthi militia has been for most of that period attacking commercial vessels headed toward the Suez Canal, impeding a third of global container traffic and badly rattling Egypt’s hard currency revenue. Now Israel has been launching airstrikes on their major port and power stations, but the group is undeterred, sending “fighters” to lawless Syria, from which they plot to attack Israel and possibly destabilize Jordan, a Western ally.

In the West, Israel has been tarred and feathered.  The International Criminal Court threatens arrest warrants against its leaders, the International Court of Justice has declared its West Bank presence illegal, progressives protest against it on campuses, and if not for the U.S. veto, it would be facing arms embargos and economic sanctions. Moody’s just downgraded its once top-notch rating to Baa1, which is the same level as Bulgaria’s.

So, Oct. 7 was not a bad day’s work for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (though we’re not exactly sure that he’s alive)! But for non-terrorists, including anyone who cares about the Palestinians, it is a grim anniversary that brings with it fears of even wider war. If Israel’s response to Iran is strong enough, a massive war between those two countries could draw in and distract the U.S. to a degree that tempts China to move against Taiwan and Putin to expand his Ukraine war to other countries.

It starts to sound like a plausible scenario for World War III. But with all the tripwires in place, and with the wide range of cynics at the helm, idiots in key positions and fanatics dug in, perhaps it most resembles World War I. Instead of the Triple Entente and the Central Powers we have NATO versus the Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” with China and Russia of all countries. Gaza is cast as Serbia, with Sinwar playing the fool Gavrilo Princip, the Serb nationalist who sparked the Great War by assassinating Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

The first page of the edition of the Domenica del Corriere, an Italian paper, with a drawing by Achille Beltrame depicting Gavrilo Princip killing Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in Sarajevo

I’d like to summon up instead the lessons of the other global war.

World War II was also one of human civilization’s lowest moments, brought about by fanatics who wrought devastation upon themselves and their people. But while the war featured unspeakable horrors, important boons came out of it, driven by the work of rational, reasonable and decent people.

The war weakened colonial powers, leading to massive decolonization; it spawned global institutions such as the United Nations and International Monetary Fund; it launched a long era of peace and prosperity in Europe underpinned by NATO, facilitated by the Marshall Plan, and ultimately leading to the formation of the European Union; it spurred significant scientific and technological advancements; and finally, the atrocities of the Holocaust prompted a renewed commitment to human rights, culminating in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Genocide Convention, both from 1948 (the same year Israel was born—also not unrelated to the war). 

So, rather than wallow in the annus horribilis that was, it may be more useful to consider how to pivot to solutions. And I have a few proposals.