How Israel's war with Iran, which basically began with the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7, 2023, might redraw the Middle East and change things for the better
It is the mostly unlikely of unintended consequences but October 7 may well be the catalyst that brings peace to the Middle East.
Without October 7 Hezbollah does not finally reveal its missile capabilities and show itself fully as the long-standing sword of Damocles hanging over Israel's head. This manifest threat now pushes Israel to finally take out Hezbollah consequences be damned.
Hezbollah's defanging leads to Lebanon reasserting its national identity and encourages Syria to rid itself of Assad. A resurgent Lebanon reduces future Hezbollah thread and Syria regime change opens up air routes to Iran.
Without Hezbollah's deterrence effect in Lebanon, Iran makes a mad dash for nuclear weapons since they realize they are now exposed to direct Israel attack.
Without Iran's dash to recreate deterrence though a nuclear weapon Israel does not attack Iran directly.
And without Israel's attack in Iran, the US -- if it finally has the gumption -- does not take out Fordow.
And, dare we dream, one can certainly see a world where Hamas goes into exile in Qatar after seeing their complete isolation, hostages are released, and Gazans can look at a future where their lives are not subject to the whims of theocratic murderers. And, yes, it's probably some combination of the Palestinian Authority and Arab technocrats running Gaza for the short term.
One horrible falling domino, October 7, has set in motion a chain of events which could lead to ever elusive peace in the Middle East or -- as Jerusalem taxi drivers might put it -- at least "a bit of quiet."
One only hopes Netanyahu will see this historic opportunity for what it is and not screw up a Gaza denouement in service to preserving his coalition and remaining in power.
It is the mostly unlikely of unintended consequences but October 7 may well be the catalyst that brings peace to the Middle East.
Without October 7 Hezbollah does not finally reveal its missile capabilities and show itself fully as the long-standing sword of Damocles hanging over Israel's head. This manifest threat now pushes Israel to finally take out Hezbollah consequences be damned.
Hezbollah's defanging leads to Lebanon reasserting its national identity and encourages Syria to rid itself of Assad. A resurgent Lebanon reduces future Hezbollah thread and Syria regime change opens up air routes to Iran.
Without Hezbollah's deterrence effect in Lebanon, Iran makes a mad dash for nuclear weapons since they realize they are now exposed to direct Israel attack.
Without Iran's dash to recreate deterrence though a nuclear weapon Israel does not attack Iran directly.
And without Israel's attack in Iran, the US -- if it finally has the gumption -- does not take out Fordow.
And, dare we dream, one can certainly see a world where Hamas goes into exile in Qatar after seeing their complete isolation, hostages are released, and Gazans can look at a future where their lives are not subject to the whims of theocratic murderers. And, yes, it's probably some combination of the Palestinian Authority and Arab technocrats running Gaza for the short term.
One horrible falling domino, October 7, has set in motion a chain of events which could lead to ever elusive peace in the Middle East or -- as Jerusalem taxi drivers might put it -- at least "a bit of quiet."
One only hopes Netanyahu will see this historic opportunity for what it is and not screw up a Gaza denouement in service to preserving his coalition and remaining in power.
No!! What are u smoking?!