In today’s episode of Critical Conditions, Claire and I explored the meaning of the US armada currently headed toward Iran. Is war afoor? Or is this sleight of hand?
The deployment is far from symbolic. The USS Abraham Lincoln is transiting from the South China Sea, ending a period in which there was no American carrier in the Middle East. F-15E Strike Eagles are deploying to Jordan. Tanker aircraft are surging to the US base in Qatar. Missile defense batteries are moving into position across the Gulf. The USS George H.W. Bush has left Norfolk, though its destination is unknown. Submarines may also be in the region, adding Tomahawk cruise missile capability. Claire argued that this is a full set of tools needed for a major military operation, and that militaries do not move armadas of this size without purpose. A gun in the first act, and so forth.
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Not unreasonable, but I noted that the term saber-rattling exists for a reason, and Trump is a big one for threats. Then again, you never know. He does like an easy win, surely he is hearing that the Iranian regime is more brittle than before, and he does look like a chump for promising the protesters that aid is “on its way” three weeks ago, only to abandon them to the butchers of the regime.
Claire pointed to Reuters reporting that Trump had said he wanted to “create conditions for regime change” — which truly would be grand, especially for the long-suffering people of Iran. But we agreed that he may well suffice with the cheapest version of success: Change at the top without necessarily replacing the mafia that runs (and bankrupts) the country. The Venezuela model, if you will.
But there is much more to consider.
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