Hamas Did Not Say "No"

It's now up to Qatar and the Arabs to get the terrorist group to "Yes"

This weekend Trump celebrated what he called a breakthrough in Gaza. Hamas, he declared, was “ready for a lasting PEACE,” and he ordered Israel to stop bombing so that hostages could be freed. The occasion was a statement issued by the Islamist movement in response to Trump’s 20-point plan, unveiled at the White House last week with Benjamin Netanyahu at his side.

Sadly, Trump’s celebration was premature. What Hamas offered was not even a “yes, but” — but rather a non-rejection. The most accurate description is that the group has accepted the idea of negotiation, not the plan itself. And the gulf between those two things may yet determine whether the war winds down or spirals into a new and costly phase.

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Hamas’s statement (here) was carefully worded: “The movement announces its agreement to release all Israeli prisoners, both living and dead, according to the exchange formula contained in President Trump’s proposal, provided the field conditions for the exchange are met. … [We] affirm [our] readiness to immediately enter into negotiations through the mediators to discuss the details of this agreement.” It went on to say that Gaza could be handed to an “independent Palestinian body of technocrats” backed by Arab consensus. But on the crucial matters — disarmament, the timetable of withdrawal, Hamas’s own future role — it punted, declaring these issues must be decided “within a comprehensive Palestinian national framework.” That is a far cry from acceptance.

Trump, never one to underplay his hand, nonetheless took a victory lap: “This is a big day. We’ll see how it all turns out. … I just want to let you know that this is a very special day. Maybe unprecedented.”

Qatar’s Leverage

What happens now depends to a great degree on Hamas’ erstwhile patron. Qatar, which has long housed Hamas’s exiled leadership, suddenly finds itself the beneficiary of Trump’s astonishing executive order, which we discussed yesterday): an extension of NATO-style protection to the tiny emirate. In practice, this means the US has pledged to treat an attack on Doha — even by Israel — as an attack on itself.

The move was so extraordinary that it makes sense only as a “down payment” on Qatari influence. Doha is now on the hook to deliver Hamas, to twist arms until they break. No more cash, no more cover, unless Hamas accepts the deal’s essence. That is a greater source of potentially effective pressure than what Israel’s military might achieve: Indeed, some within the group may welcome an Israeli incursion into Gaza City, calculating that bogging Israel down in occupation would serve their long-term cause.

The real leverage is Arab, financial, and political — and it now runs through Doha. To get Hamas to stand down, for real, arms will need to be twisted to the breaking point. And the Palestinians will need to understand that Gaza reconstruction is 100% dependent on Hamas saying “yes.”

Netanyahu’s Shifting Calculus

Much analysis has focused on Netanyahu’s motives. In the early stages of the war, it was plausible to think that he preferred prolongation: survival of his fragile coalition depended on far-right partners like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who opposed compromise. A collapse of the coalition might have ended his premiership on the heels of the October 7 disaster.

But the calculus has changed. Elections are looming, probably in less than a year. Polls suggest that sacrificing hostages and extending the war is now deeply unpopular. The Israeli public, exhausted and grieving, wants closure. Netanyahu knows that his coalition may not survive, but he also knows that his best chance at electoral redemption is to end the war on favorable terms. From Israel’s perspective, despite the costs here have also been important succeses:

• Iran has been bloodied, its nuclear and missile programs set back.

• Hezbollah has been thrashed and now faces pressure in Lebanon, where the government has been nudged to rein it in.

• Hamas itself is shattered, with most senior commanders dead or in hiding.

• The Axis of Resistance — the Shiite “circle of fire” surrounding Israel — is weaker than before October 7. Critically, the Arab world appears to have accepted that Iran’s meddling via these militias, which have undermined a series of Arab countries including Iraq, is illegitimate. It is about time.

For Netanyahu, these achievements could be packaged as hard-won victories, offsetting his catastrophic failures. If he can add the safe return of hostages and the disarmament of Hamas, he will have a plausible case to make to voters.

The Costs of War

Yet the costs have been staggering. Tens of thousands of Palestinians are dead, entire neighborhoods flattened. Israel’s global reputation has been battered: accusations of war crimes, mounting isolation in Europe, and fury across the Global South. The country’s economy has absorbed the shock of endless mobilizations and the bleeding away of reservists from civilian life. For ordinary Israelis, the toll of funerals, shelters, and uncertainty has been immense.

This is why the current moment is so fragile. Despite Trump’s boasting, there is no deal. Hamas has not agreed to disarm, and Israel cannot accept less. Unless Qatar brings Hamas across that Rubicon, the celebrations will ring hollow.

And if Hamas refuses? Then, as I argued on I24, the war will resume — but this time with carte blanche from Trump. The likely scenario would be a long and grinding campaign, culminating in the imposition of an Israeli military administration over more than two million Palestinians. That arrangement would trigger resistance, drain Israel’s economy, and mire its soldiers in urban policing for years. It is precisely the quagmire that Hamas may secretly desire.

So the story of this weekend is not that yet Hamas accepted peace, but that with talks beginning in Egypt, probably Monday, coming days will be critical. If Qatar forces Hamas to accept the deal in substance, the war may finally end. If not, Israel will march on, with America’s blessing, into a costly new chapter.

In an absurd coda, it is rather clear that Trump wants a deal by Thursday to that by Friday he can receive the Nobel Peace Prize. One never knows — but I have real Trump imagining a collection of prim and proper Nordic liberals handing the prize to a vulgarian that may have done a great thing in the Middle East — but is also wobbly on Ukraine, skeptical of NATO, friendlier toward autocrats that democrats, and was last week seen advising American generals and admirals to fight the “enemy from within” and beat spitting female demonstrators.

It would be an excellent story, though.