How the East was lost

FOURTH OF JULY READ: Nixon saw exactly what would happen in Russia. Crook though he was, he towered over today's leaders in his understanding of history.

In 1992, Richard Nixon issued a warning about Russia that, in hindsight, was one of the most accurate geopolitical predictions of modern history. As we survey the wreckage of the ongoing war in Ukraine, started by an aggressive and imperialist Russia, it is worth remembering Nixon’s words and considering the lessons – not just about Russia but also for the West.

Speaking shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, he said that while communism had been defeated, the ideas of freedom were now on trial. If they somehow failed in Russia, what would emerge would not be a return to Marxist orthodoxy, but a new authoritarianism that would menace the world.

I remember the early 1990s well. I was a young reporter for AP running around Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, witnessing the collapse of communism and sharing in the euphoria and triumphalism. The roar of history seemed to confirm what had been drummed into me by my education in America: Our system was the best and reigned supreme. The somewhat disgraced former US president knew a little better, but almost no one listened. We were captivated by shinier things, like Bill Clinton playing the sax and explaining that he did not inhale.

“It is often said that the Cold War is over and that the West has won it. That's only half true, because what has happened is that the communists have been defeated, but the ideas of freedom now are on trial,” Nixon said. “If they don't work, there will be a reversion to not communism, which has failed, but what I call a new despotism, which would pose a mortal danger to the rest of the world because it would be infected with the virus of Russian imperialism, which, of course, has been a characteristic of Russian foreign policy for centuries.”

Thirty years later, with Vladimir Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine and ongoing assaults on democracy worldwide, Nixon’s words seem less like commentary and more like prophecy. What he foresaw was what actually came about – with the West’s unwitting help.