For those who missed it, Benjamin Netanyahu has finally found a defector in Israel’s brittle governing coalition, bringing its supporters to just 60 out of 120 members of Knesset. In Israel’s right-religious camp, there is much rejoicing at the supposedly impending fall of the hated “change government” that ended 12 years of Netanyahu rule. And fall it might – but that does not necessarily return Netanyahu his long-held crown.

That’s because the number of anti-Netanyahu seats elected one year and two weeks ago remains 61 – even without the right-wing Yamina Party of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Some of them simply are not officially in the coalition – by which I mean the Joint Arab List.

Now that the six members of the Joint List are needed, expect posturing and implausibly deniable negotiating. Already they threaten to support a right-wing move to bring down the government. And so they might, because of many little complications and rivalries. But they also might not, because that would put them in league with virulent anti-Arab racists on the extreme right and go against the wishes of their public which mostly loathes Netanyahu. It would also amount to foregoing quite a few carrots which they’re in position to collect for the Israeli-Arab sector.

The real issue may be whether the right-leaning elements of the coalition (which oppose Netanyahu on corruption and authoritarianism grounds) will rise to the occasion and draw in the Joint List. One shouldn’t overestimate people who don’t understand that the West Bank occupation harms Israel, and so I make no assumptions. But even if the Joint List is not brought into the coalition nor made to support it passively from outside, the government will not depart so quickly.

Under the current law there are two ways to bring it down. The first is in a constructive no-confidence vote of in which another candidate is put forth as the new prime minister and backed by at least 61. The second is a dissolution of the Knesset, triggering new elections (which would be, absurdly, the fifth in three years).

Let’s examine the first scenario, of an alternative prime minister. It would require another Yamina member to bolt, and the Joint List to actually support the constructive no-confidence vote.

Could a Knesset member possibly be found to be crowned by a coalition comprising the ultra-Orthodox Jews, the racism extreme right, the Joint Arab List and Netanyahu’s Likud? It would almost certainly require Likud to ditch Netanyahu (which most of its lawmakers desire but none has had the spine to pursue). It is odd, but the best chances for such a scenario may sit with the somewhat shifty Defense Minister Benny Gantz, and though this would outrage his own center-left constituents it could happen if things got crazy enough.

The easier scenario is for the Knesset to dissolve itself by a majority vote. In this case under the coalition agreement Israel would go to elections by summer and enter a period of so-called “transition government.”

Under the coalition agreement, that government would be led not by Bennett but by center-left Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid – the foreign minister, supposedly incoming prime minister (in 2023), and actual architect of the “change government.” If Bennett fails to seize the moment and truly cross the rubicon by courting the Joint List, it seems the most likely thing to happen.

And if this occurs, Lapid will not be so easy to remove. That’s because transition governments can survive indefinitely in Israel until someone actually wins an election. Netanyahu remained in power, at the head of a transition government, for years, surviving several inconclusive elections.

It is an insane situation that amounts to the best argument for changing Israel’s electoral system to one in which the head of government is directly elected by a majority vote. Pure parliamentary democracy is not suited to Israel’s tribal and fragmented political landscape. It makes Italy look stable by comparison.

And one other little thing. Beyond politics there is life itself. And in life itself, the arguments against Netanyahu remain exactly as they were: he is a criminal defendant who was taking Israel down the path towards an authoritarian democracy like Erdogan’s Turkey; it is far from inconceivable to see him heading a fake democracy like Putin’s Russia. And the arguments against another right-religious government, regardless of who is PM, are even stronger: down that path lies a version of theocracy and a non-democratic binational state.

Meanwhile, in case foolishness again prevails, there is a fail-safe of sorts in place. One might as well practice saying it: Prime Minister Yair Lapid, heading Israel’s transition government.

Ask Questions Later

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