Is regime change in Iran actually possible?

Israel’s strikes on Iran may be about more than nukes — they could mark the start of a campaign for regime change, with US backing

Israel's campaign to set back Iran’s nuclear program also reflects a grander shared, if mostly unspoken, ambition among Western and Arab allies: to end the country’s clerical regime. The terrible record of regime change efforts by the West has muted such hopes – but Israel’s early successes in the war are giving them interesting new life.

The assessment of whether the regime might actually collapse is certainly a factor in America’s calculations of how much deeper to be involved. The current posture of non-involvement is, of course, implausible. Israel would never have acted against U.S. wishes: it depends on America for the spare parts that keep its air force running, for a diplomatic shield at the United Nations, for legal cover against international tribunals, and for critical support in intercepting Iranian missile and drone retaliation.

That Israel also struck right around the 60-day deadline President Trump had given Iran for engaging in useful talks – which Iran brazenly flouted, even announcing a new enrichment site on the day before the attack – also points in the direction of coordination. But on the other hand, Trump is averse to military action and the United States has vulnerable military personnel, assets, and bases scattered across the region.

That said, only the United States has the bunker-busting capability to fully take out the most fortified elements of Iran’s nuclear program, the underground facilities at Natanz and Fordow. There is a scenario, after Israel does everything else, where it may look attractive.