Israel saved Lebanon

The thrashing of Hezbollah helped put Lebanon back together again, beginning with the election of Joseph Aoun as president

Lebanon, a country long held captive by the stranglehold of the Hezbollah war machine-cum-mafia, has taken its first steps toward reclaiming its sovereignty and future. For over two years it lacked a president, mired in political paralysis orchestrated by Hezbollah, whose unchecked power silenced dissent and cowed its fellow Shiite ally Amal into betraying the country. But as of Jan. 9, Lebanon has a president — and much of the credit goes to Israel, which is technically in a state of war with its neighbor to the north. That’s the Middle East for you.

In recent months, Israel’s focused military campaign against Hezbollah dismantled much of Hezbollah, which had been the most powerful non-state army in the world. After enduring a year of relentless rocket attacks from Hezbollah (ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas, which is fighting Israel in Gaza), Israel launched an operation from September to November, targeting Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership with precision strikes.

While these actions caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, their impact was transformative. The cease-fire from late November was essentially a Hezbollah surrender, which is not something you see every day in this mulish era (and region).

The political breakthrough came when Amal (once Hezbollah’s rival for Shiite hearts and minds, and in latter times an ally) broke ranks. This pivotal shift allowed Lebanon’s parliament to elect Maronite Christian Joseph Aoun, the military commander, as president. He has vowed to ensure that the Lebanese state holds a monopoly on arms, a principle enshrined in United Nations Security Council resolutions and the Taif Agreement that ended Lebanon’s civil war, and the logic that says that only thus is a country not a joke. This commitment, if realized, could mark a sea change in a land that has long been a patchwork of armed factions and malign Iranian influence.

The numbers tell the story of this political shift. In the first round of voting, Aoun secured 71 votes, falling short of the 86 needed. But by the second round, he garnered 99 votes, thanks to Amal’s decision to abandon Hezbollah’s obstructionism. This strategic pivot reportedly came in exchange, it seems, for the finance ministry—a significant concession that underscores Amal’s recognition of Hezbollah’s waning influence.

“What happened in the region between Israel and Hezbollah was the first reason for why this election was possible, because Hezbollah had blocked the election of anybody who's not an ally,” said foreign policy expert Walid Phares, a Lebanese-born Maronite who has advised Donald Trump (see below discussion on Israel’s I24. “This election is the result of a new balance of power that is the result of the Israel-Hezbollah war. There is no doubt about that.”