No Good Options
The Iran situation is reaching the boiling point. Here's a weekend briefing for PAID SUBSCRIBERS
There has been a flurry of diplomatic activity around the Iran stalemate over the weekend, as the situation appears to be approaching a possible tipping point with no good options available to the US or the troubled Western alliance.
Barak Ravid, the Israeli reporter who works for Axios and weirdly has become Trump’s favorite recipient of leaks, says Trump is holding calls with Gulf allies today and will decide tomorrow whether to resume the war (and strike Iran to “kingdom come” — bluster that would once have shocked and is now routine). Remember that last week Trump said it was these Gulf allies that talked him out of resuming the war. He’s also expected to speak with Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish leaders and Reuters said a Pakistani security official said a memorandum of understanding is being “fine tuned” to end the war. So: a knife’s edge.
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In recent days:
Iran submitted a revised 14-point plan which if accepted would be seen as an achievement for the regime, as it would impose terms worse for the world than Obama’s 2015 deal which Trump ripped up in 2018, and give the regime a massive new runway to continue its assault on its people and the region.
Pakistan continues to cement its role as the key intermediary as over the weekend its army chief Asim Munir traveled to Tehran for meetings with Iranian leaders including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — about the above plan. Pakistan has long been a wobbly US ally at best — formally aligned and reliant on aid and military cooperation, yet repeatedly accused of hedging its bets by tolerating or turning a blind eye to militant networks targeting US interests, maintaining deep strategic ties with China, and generally playing games.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio first met with NATO allies and then went to India. In Europe, the focus publicly was on Russia and the US administrations confusing messages of troop drawdowns (Trump earlier announced 5,000 would leave the continent, then in recent days that 5,000 would be added to Poland) — but the main task, below radar, was getting NATO on side with whatever happens next in the war. In India the issue is trade but mostly energy: India imports 80% of its energy and half its oil comes via the blockaded Persian Gulf; Rubio is offering US oil instead — and India would rather buy Russian.
Araghchi also engaged in talks with Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi. In wlily fashion, Iran is trying to rope Oman into a joint extortion mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz, which is physically shared by Iran and Oman. By tying in Oman, which is viewed as neutral and law-abiding, it hopes to soften Western resistance and make enforcement harder to isolate diplomatically. This isn’t likely to work, but full credit for trying.
What does all this mean? Here’s our analysis of the rather bad options facing the US at this point.
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