Only Trump Can Stop Israel’s Slide Into a Forever War

With the president about to visit the Middle East, Netanyahu's Gaza plan is testing his instincts to just get things over with already

Whether Israel embarks on a new occupation of Gaza, as per a plan approved this week, will depend on the pleasure of one man: not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but United States President Donald Trump. Odd, I know; but also not so odd.

Israel’s security cabinet voted unanimously on Sunday in favor of a new war that officials described as the “occupation” of the territory. While many on the Israeli far right have agitated for the reoccupation of the strip, Israel until recently had shied away from using such overt language in describing its goals in its 18-month-long war against Hamas. Now, “we will stop being afraid of the word ‘occupation,’” Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu’s ultranationalist finance minister, told Israel’s Channel 12 TV. “Once the new offensive in Gaza begins, there will be no retreat from the territories we have conquered, not even in exchange for hostages.”

This runs totally counter to the Israeli public’s preference to ending the war – as Israel agreed to do in the January ceasefire that it unilaterally walked away from about a month ago.

As the 600-day mark of the war, approaches about 70% of the public want to prioritize a deal to return the hostages. A similar majority wants a national inquiry commission into the Oct. 7 massacre led by the judicial system, as has been de rigueur throughout Israel’s history and which the government has blocked this week as well. Increasing numbers of reservists are ignoring the callup orders.

Amid this insanely complex situation, Trump — a man of simple inclinations, like self-dealing — will be crucial in determining whether Israel actually pursues a new occupation of Gaza, 20 years after its first one ended in a unilateral pullout of all soldiers and settlers in 2005. The time for it is during next week’s trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Most Israelis know an occupation of Gaza would be an ugly affair in which the soldiers will be sitting ducks for militants embedded within a population of two million. Economists have warned that the costs of administering the territory and provided services to its population will be staggering.