Reckless predictions for 2025

Will it be world peace - or an end that is well nigh? Perhaps flying AI dolphins?

"The future is open,” wrote the philosopher Karl Popper. “It is not predetermined and thus cannot be predicted." He had a point: Our world is an unruly beast, seldom tamed by the sharpest minds or most careful calculations. It’s also true that people don’t change at my age – and so, appreciating the folly of my endeavor and in line with a lifetime of recklessness, here are my predictions for 2025.

Generative AI becomes truly ubiquitous

Let’s start with an easy one, since I did not promise that all of them would be reckless. The integration of generative AI into mainstream professional and personal workflows will reach a tipping point by the end of 2025. While Gen Z students have been using AI tools like ChatGPT for at least two years, and many industrious professionals in fields like marketing, coding, and design are early adopters, holdouts remain in some industries. But not using AI will soon be akin to avoiding search engines—untenable for anyone aiming to maintain productivity and competitiveness.

This shift will particularly challenge professions and individuals that rely on demonstrating originality and intellectual rigor, such as students. Educational institutions will likely move away from assigning routine tasks as homework—knowing AI can complete such assignments with ease—and instead prioritize in-class assessments, oral exams, and performance-based evaluations. The focus will shift from regurgitating information to demonstrating critical thinking, creativity, and adaptability in real-time. That’s not so bad – because in a professional world where AI is ubiquitous, those are precisely the skills they will need. But concerns will grow about mass worker displacement – and there will be pressure on companies to avoid it: the knew way to get sustainability points will be less DEI, more retraining for AI.

There is, however, a downside (if not a dark side). Meta seems ready to roll out fake users based on AI (they would call it by some less-dire euphemism) in a misbegotten attempt to appeal to younger users (or, at least, their worst impulses and instincts); this is clearly a corollary of CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s flailing obsession with the Metaverse (which Elon Musk, who like a broken clock is right twice a day, pleasingly mocks). And deepfakes will go through the roof; expect a flood of false videos depicting interesting-yet-plausible things, and criminals claiming evidence of their misdeeds was faked via AI (and in some cases it will be true). Election interference via AI (and its deployment via social media, as occurred in Romania in November) will skyrocket too. The mayhem will be great enough to give nostalgia a good name – but the improvements to quality of life will be spectacular, as well.

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