Regional Middle East war – or de-escalation?

Everyone's on edge during a crucial week in a volatile region

Just as a broken clock is right on occasion, so can journalistic cliches be accurate: These are critical days of a pivotal week. Why pivotal? Because down one path lies an Israel-Hamas hostage deal that winds down the Gaza war. Down the other lies the real possibility of a regional war that draws in Iran and perhaps the West.

A possible inflection point comes Thursday, when Israeli negotiators are expected in Doha (or Cairo) amid maximal and public pressure by the United States, Egypt and Qatar to nail down the deal. The assumption is that an end to the Gaza war would mean Hezbollah also stopping its 10-month campaign of bombing Israel from Lebanon in solidarity with Hamas.

Also determinative is whether Hezbollah and Iran make good on threats to attack Israel any day now. That would be vengeance for Israel’s July 30 killing of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and for the following day’s assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran (assumed to be Israel’s doing). Israelis’ wait has been nerve-wracking and it is widely expected that many civilian casualties will trigger all-our war. The U.S. has been threatening Iran with “devastating consequences” should it miscalculate.

One possible miscalculation would be for Iran to attack IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, claiming it is a military target. Here is what the area looks like:

Which way it goes, nobody knows. But it might help to understand what each side wants.

The mediators are straightforward enough. Amid a volatile election, with the Ukraine war itself escalating, the Americans just want the Middle East disaster to end (instead moving toward an Israel-Saudi peace). Egypt wants an end to a conflict that could spill over into Sinai and has rattled its Suez Canal business (because Yemen’s Houthis are exuberantly attacking ships headed there in solidarity with the Palestinians). Qatar wants to be a business hub and is embarrassed by its association with Hamas.

But the mediators cannot want peace more than the parties, as the saying goes. And the parties are tougher customers than most.

Let’s, then, take a look.