Romanian Democracy on the Brink

NATO member Romania’s election drama tests Trump’s affinity for authoritarians

The notion exists that Donald Trump doesn’t care much for NATO, has a soft spot for Vladimir Putin, and admires authoritarians. That’s about to be tested in Romania, a country in the grip of a major political drama that could potentially reshape NATO’s stability on its eastern flank.

On November 24, the first round of Romania’s presidential elections was won by Calin Georgescu, an ultranationalist candidate who openly admires Putin, scorns the European Union and NATO, and envisions realigning Romania with Russia. Doesn’t that sound like the perfect man for Steve Bannon and the Tucker Carlson crowd?

Logic would suggest the MAGA universe should be stampeding to Romania to rally behind Georgescu, as they have done for the similarly liberal-baiting Prime Minister Viktor Orban in neighboring Hungary. From his vaccine skepticism to his religious reveries and conspiracy theories about the moon landing, Georgescu is seemingly tailor-made for their brand of disruptive, anti-globalist, in-your-face politics.

But this is where things get complicated. Romania is no ordinary nation on NATO’s periphery; it’s a frontline state in the Ukraine war that hosts critical military assets, including the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, a key hub for NATO operations.

The country passed a law in April 2022 to allow the transfer of lethal weapons from its defense reserves to Ukraine, and has slowly declassified information regarding these supplies, although details remain sparse. The supplies include a Patriot missile defense system, APR-40 launchers and TAB-71 armored vehicles. Romania also plans to train Ukrainian F-16 pilots, has played a vital role in transit of Western military aid, and has become a crucial export hub for Ukrainian grain, particularly through its Black Sea port of Constanta.

Presidents of Romania cannot just bolt NATO, but they set the tone, and any wobble in Romania’s alignment with the alliance could send terrible shockwaves through efforts to counter Russia’s aggression.