Thailand’s House Divided: How the Majority Lost
Thai elites have long feared majoritarian politics — and, unlike their opponents, don’t foolishly splinter
We contain multitudes of contradictions: For example, we celebrate majority rule yet also tend to fear majorities. And not for nothing! History offers no shortage of examples where electorates empowered reckless leaders, weakened institutions, or eroded minority protections – as well as of minority elites blocking reform. Americans, who wrestle with all this, might look to Thailand, where last week’s election left the pro-change masses on the losing side, due to divisions.
There’s much to unpack, but first, a recap. In recent history Thai politics was shaped by the military acting in concert with the country’s traditional centers of authority: the monarchy-aligned establishment, senior bureaucracies, courts, and business elites. Periodic interventions, constitutional redesigns, an appointed Senate and judicial rulings repeatedly limited the scope of elected governments.
The most consequential challenge to this order came with the rise two decades ago of Thaksin Shinawatra, whose populist movement mobilized rural majorities. His eventual removal was justified by accusations of corruption and conflicts of interest — claims that were not entirely fabricated, though they also provided a convenient rationale for reasserting establishment control.
The simple question now underlying Thai politics — and, in different forms, many democracies — has no easy answer: What happens when a country’s establishment — its judges, generals, civil servants, business elites, academics, and, yes, highfalutin journalists — concludes that unconstrained democracy might bring not renewal but disorder? The answer is rarely tidy. Sometimes such anxieties reflect legitimate concerns about governance and institutional continuity. Sometimes they mask little more than grasping elites holding on to unfair privilege. Both can certainly be the case at the same time. Let’s examine!
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