The Art of The Sellout

In giving Putin so much on Ukraine, Trump is attacking America's allies, not its adversaries

Donald Trump is taking a significant gamble with his approach to Ukraine. By pushing toward an endgame and engaging Russian President Vladimir Putin so warmly, he risks making premature concessions to a leader whose ambitions may extend far beyond Ukraine.

This week on Fox News, Trump suggested that Ukraine "may be Russian some day" and floated the idea that U.S. aid should come with strings attached—specifically, access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth signaled that Ukrainian NATO membership is off the table. To many this may seem like pragmatic dealmaking, but if Putin believes the United States is ready to accept a Russian-controlled Ukraine he’ll see little reason to stop there.

It’s not paranoid to think that Russia’s — not only Putin’s — ambitions do not end with Ukraine. If they perceive weakness in Western resolve, he could set his sights on Moldova, the Baltics, or seek greater influence (even restored control) over Central and Eastern Europe. That is why U.S. policy toward Ukraine has never been just about Ukraine — it is about whether military aggression in Europe will be tolerated or deterred.

I do concede that Trump is touching on an uncomfortable truth: Ukraine faces serious challenges in fully reclaiming all of its lost territory, and its allies will not support a forever war on principle. While President Joe Biden did not explicitly state as much, policymakers and analysts do quietly acknowledge that rolling back Russian control entirely, in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, is unlikely. On these very pages several months ago, former Romanian prime minister Mihai Razvan Ungureanu and I outlined endgame scenarios in that vein. So the real shock for Ukrainians is not necessarily in the substance of Trump’s remarks but in their directness—which is indeed unwise.

There is a better way, and it’s pretty obvious.