Trump must approach Putin with a very big stick

He's trying to sell out Ukraine on Aug. 15, but even that might not work without massive pressure on Putin.

Trump evidently believes that Vladimir Putin has finally been persuaded to settle for less than the total conquest of Ukraine — specifically, for control over the Donbas region in the east. That’s why Friday’s meeting with Putin in Alaska — one of the few places the dictator can go to without fear of arrest — was set up.

It’s clear that this is a sellout of Ukraine and appeasement of a dangerous aggressor. What’s not clear is whether Trump is being played by the wily, obsessive and unscrupulous Putin. For Trump to avoid again looking like a chump, he will need to carry a very big stick. With it, he needs to organize some serious compensation for Ukraine and leverage against Russia.

The outlines of what the likes of Trump consider a reasonable “deal” are familiar: Russia retains roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory in exchange for a ceasefire and some form of security arrangement that halts the war. Essentially Russia is paid off — but given its losses in the war, it also has good reason for regrets.

We don’t know whether Putin would actually agree, and if agreement might not be a trick; all we know is that something encouraging was passed off through the inexpert offices of envoy Steve Witkoff. And no less an obstacle may be Volodymyr Zelensky. Over the weekend, the Ukrainian president reiterated that “we will not give our land to the occupier” but also left the door open to “real decisions” for peace. Zelensky emphasized that this means Ukraine must be at the table, yet Trump and Putin plan to meet without him. Theirs is a game of great powers with spheres of influences and vassal states that can be bullied.

Despite his inartful ways, Trump does not lack bargaining chips on both sides to end the war.