Trump’s Iran Strategy Is a Massive Missed Opportunity

Instead of being tough on Europe and Zelensky and easy on Putin and the mullahs, try the other way around

As the Trump Administration heads into a third stage of nuclear talks with Iran, the contours of a major missed opportunity are emerging. Trump — who in 2018 torpedoed the Obama-era nuclear deal — now seems to want something strikingly similar. Despite some threats and hints of toughness, Trump appears far more interested in striking any deal than using the opportunity to finally bring the Islamic Republic to heel.

Worse, he is suggesting that if force is needed, Israel should take the lead. This is a profound strategic error, because it would enable Iran to falsely cast the development in the context of the Jewish state’s dispute with the Muslim world as opposed to an imperative by the free world.

While not at the level of Trump’s obsequiousness with Russia, the polite pussyfooting with Iran is of a piece. And it stands in sharp contrast to the snarling tactics Trump deploys against parties that would normally be America’s allies, from Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky to the EU to Canada. It is, essentially, the world turned upside down, like a twisted cosmic joke.

Iran’s nuclear program is no longer a theoretical threat. The regime is enriching uranium to 60% — a stone’s throw from weapons-grade — and possesses enough fissile material for multiple bombs, according to credible intelligence course. It continues to prevent inspections, advance centrifuge technology, and shield operations in underground facilities designed to survive airstrikes.

While Tehran insists its intentions are peaceful, its actions betray a clear drive toward nuclear capability — which would be an unimaginable menace, triggering a regional nuclear race by a series of non-democratic regimes.

This is happening at a moment of vulnerability for the regime. Its proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis — have been hit hard since the war that Hamas launched on October 7, 2023. So have Iran’s air defenses, significantly degraded by Israel last fall in its response to history’s biggest ballistic missile attack (though Iran claims it has fixed some of this). At home, economic pressure and public unrest are high. Iran’s deterrence is fraying. In this context, a bold U.S. strategy could compel real change — but that would require more than recycled diplomacy.

Take a step back, and the picture becomes clear.