Will Trump abandon Ukraine?

It would force Europe to grow up fast

Few countries are more worried about President-Elect Donald Trump than Ukraine, whose determined stand against Russian aggression would collapse without outside aid. That goes double with the indications that his secretary of state will be Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who has been calling for a "negotiated settlement." Whatever lipstick is smeared on the pig, that means letting Russia keep some of the land it seized.

While Trump himself is famously—and disturbingly—in thrall to Russian President Vladimir Putin, he might not want to hand the dictator an obvious gift. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should certainly be concerned about Trump's vow to end the war in a day, and his impatience with "forever-wars" that are costly to the U.S.

And President Joe Biden's Ukraine war policy seems almost engineered to yield just such a "forever war": he has prevented Ukraine from losing, but avoided provoking Russia too badly by providing what it needs to win.

So, despite substantial military aid, the U.S. has restricted the supply of longer-range missiles like ATACMS and advanced drones. F-16 fighter jets, while now being delivered by European allies, arrived only recently. The U.S. also limited intelligence-sharing protocols available to NATO members, and delayed delivery of other key assets.

Will Trump provide more? His close relationship with Putin would seem to make that unlikely. Indeed, a true rupture with Putin over Ukraine would be an earthquake in the Trump universe. For him to even threaten it, in search of some artful deal, is unlikely.

Yet something must be done, and Trump, who is not a dialectical man, will be confronted with competing ideas about the situation.