Europe’s Moment: Time to Grow Up and Step Up

America is not an ally in the normally understood sense for the next four years at least, so Europe will have to own its own troubles

The Oval Office clash between Donald Trump (backed by the hectoring JD Vance) and Volodymyr Zelensky marks a turning point in the war in Ukraine — and possibly in European history. As the duo berated Zelensky for alleged disrespect and canceled a minerals deal, in what looked very much like a trap, it became clear that US support for Ukraine is no longer guaranteed.

This leaves Europe at a crossroads. If America steps back, Europe must step up. Shocking though it may seem, Trump is doing what many foresaw in walking away from America’s longstanding commitment to Europe’s security. This is now Europe’s problem. That should be reflected in Zelensky’s upcoming meetings with European leaders in London — which should look like a mirror image of the circus in the Oval Office.

(A week after the calamitous US election the election we predicted pretty much just this, saying that the Europeans will be “horrified,” since it would upend not only the regional security dynamic on Ukraine but also the foundation of the continent's post-World War II order, which has relied on a stable transatlantic alliance.” In the poll that day, two-thirds preferred doubling down on aid to Ukraine.)

And, as ever with Trump’s contrarian instincts and seemingly reckless actions, there is a kernel of truth and reason: It is indeed high time for Europe to grow up and take responsibility for its own security, 80 years after World War II.

Trump’s betrayal could hardly have been framed in more vulgar fashion, as if to place an exclamation point on it. Friday’s Oval Office meeting came amid what can only be described as a gangster-like attempted shakedown (indeed, thusly did we describe it), as Trump demanded $500 billion of Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals—resources crucial for advanced technologies—without offering any meaningful security guarantees in return. It was a nakedly transactional move, pressuring Ukraine – a country some 20 times poorer by per capita GDP – at its most vulnerable moment, as it fought for its life.

Despite expectation of some compromise – a deal giving the U.S. significant access to valuable resources, including titanium and lithium – the meeting devolved into a heated confrontation. Trump accused Zelensky of “gambling with World War III” and abruptly cut short the meeting, canceling a planned lunch and joint press conference. His aptly-titled vice president piled on, accusing Zelensky of being ungrateful and disrespectful. Zelensky fired back, pointing out that Vance had no understanding of Ukraine’s situation. The public shaming was unprecedented, and the fallout was immediate. Trump’s admonition that Zelensky was “not ready for peace if America is involved” underscored his long-telegraphed desire to wash his hands of the conflict.

The Oval Office debacle is about more than great TV or bad policy on Ukraine.