What to look forward to in July

After a June that saw quite a collection of firsts

After a June dominated by the Israel–Iran confrontation, July is shaping up to be just as pivotal and perhaps even more so. Here’s the helpful lowdown from the newsroom at AQL.

The explosive events of last month included quite a collection of firsts. Israel had never attacked a non-Arab country. America had never joined in an Israeli attack (and indeed rarely joins other people’s wars). No past war ended with a tweet — in this case Trump essentially declaring the over and daring the sides to disobey (basically that meant Israel, since Iran, which was being hammered in humiliating fashion, wanted it over). Then Trump became the U.S. first president to drop the F-bomb in public on two countries’ leaderships (declaring they “don’t know what the fuck they’re doing”). And for good measure, he suggested Iran’s political leader Ali Khamenei would have been killed if not for him (even Putin normally seeks deniability).

Now, all eyes turn to Washington, where Trump is set to host Benjamin Netanyahu on July 7 for what could be a defining summit. Trump appears determined to engineer an end to the catastrophic Gaza war — which would be the most useful act ever by a convicted felon. A hostage deal, a new government in Gaza, new peace treaties, a new nuclear treaty (Or regime change in Iran? A resumption of the war?) are all on the table. It could be a veritable Pax Americana — and it could also end in tears.

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At the same time, Trump is pushing forward with his controversial “Big Beautiful Bill” — a sweeping budget package that cements his second-term priorities. Branded with his signature bravado, the legislation makes the 2017 tax cuts permanent, raises the debt ceiling, and slashes entitlements, while offering enormous tax breaks to the ultra-wealthy. Democrats have blasted the bill — AQL called it reverse Robin Hood economics — and even some Republicans are wavering as the July 4 deadline looms. If passed, the execrable bill would redefine the economic direction of the United States and further expose the contradictions in Trump’s working-class coalition.

Meanwhile, a deadline on tariff policy — set to expire July 9 — could usher in a new wave of trade barriers and retaliatory measures, particularly with the EU and Canada watching closely. Trump’s return to protectionism risks stoking inflation, even as many of his supporters cite high prices as a key concern. Add to this the crises unfolding elsewhere — particularly the grinding war in Ukraine, where Western unity is showing signs of strain — and July could prove to be a turning point in multiple arenas.

All of this makes for a month of high stakes drama. Meanwhile, here are some highlights from our June coverage to help you catch up and contextualize what comes next.

Robbing the poor to give to the rich

Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” delivers a massive tax break to the ultra-wealthy while slashing support for the working class. The most staggering figure: Americans earning over $900,000 would receive an average annual tax cut of $68,000, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. To help pay for it, the bill slashes nearly $800 billion from Medicaid and guts key programs like the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit—lifelines for low-income families. Trump has tried to justify the bill by falsely claiming that failure to pass it would result in a 68% tax hike. In reality, that number refers to the share of households that might see any increase if the 2017 tax cuts expire—most of which would be modest and affect upper brackets. While voters are distracted by culture war slogans, the bill strips benefits, worsens inequality, and hands the country over to entrenched wealth and legacy industries.

The 30,000-pound message: America’s military edge is absolute

Famed war correspondent Chris Stephen offered this analysis dissecting the US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a high-stakes gambit straight from his dealmaker’s playbook. With global fears over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and a decades-long record as a sponsor of terror, Trump knew he held the stronger hand — bolstered by America’s unmatched military technology, including B-2 bombers and Massive Ordnance Penetrators. Coordinated with Israel and backed by electronic warfare, refueling tankers, and submarine-launched cruise missiles, the operation devastated Iran’s infrastructure. Legality be damned, Trump faced no consequences — only global relief and an odd renewed respect for his unpredictability. This was part of our multifaceted war coverage that included:

• The potential for a massive strategic realignment in the Middle East.

• A look at the clash of narratives between Israel (and the West) and Iran.

• An examination of the possibility of regime change in Iran.

• A dispatch from the bomb shelter.

• A call for avoiding another forever-war.

• A podcast appearance by Dan Perry on Worth Knowing with Matt Robison.

The Mamdani Earthquake

We analyzed Zohran Mamdani’s stunning primary win, one of the most dramatic upsets in U.S. municipal politics. Whatever else may be true, he is politically astute and well-spoken. The 33-year-old democratic socialist and potential first Muslim mayor of New York toppled Andrew Cuomo’s attempted comeback despite the former governor’s name recognition, PAC millions, and establishment backing. His grassroots campaign, powered by door-knocking, youthful energy, and boldly populist promises — free buses, rent freezes, soaking the rich — galvanized a multiracial, progressive base. With incumbent Eric Adams and possibly Cuomo running as independents, and Republican Curtis Sliwa in the mix, the general election will be chaotic. Mamdani’s rise gives Republicans a perfect foil: a young socialist with a BDS-aligned stance, ripe for attacks. The big question now is whether this marks a progressive blip — or a harbinger of the Democrats’ future.

NATO must pivot east — or risk irrelevance

Mihai Razvan Ungureanu (who is Romania’s former prime minister) wrote that for decades, NATO’s strategic focus ran North-South from Germany to Italy — but in today’s world, the real threat lies to the East, from the Baltics through Poland to Bulgaria. Despite growing aggression from Russia, the alliance remains politically and militarily centered in the West, leaving frontline states under-resourced and underrepresented. Countries like Poland and Romania spend above NATO’s defense benchmarks, yet command centers and influence remain in capitals far from danger. A new Eastern axis is needed — with real investment, permanent infrastructure, and greater leadership roles for those facing the threat directly. NATO’s survival depends on evolving now.

Why you might not be the hero you think you are

Luca Wolfe Murray argued that while many of us like to believe we’d have resisted past atrocities — hiding Jews during the Holocaust, opposing slavery in the American South — history shows most people complied with injustice when it was socially accepted and economically convenient. True moral courage, he suggests, means standing up in real time, not retrospectively. Today, he argued, that might look like ethical veganism: a stance often met with ridicule and exclusion because it challenges a deeply entrenched norm—the mass killing of animals for food. Vegans, Luca argued, are in a way among the few willing to be disliked for defending the powerless.

Poland takes a step back

In a powerful analysis from Krakow, Adam Reichardt examined the high-stakes Polish presidential election, where liberal mayor Rafał Trzaskowski faced off against PiS-backed populist Karol Nawrocki. While Romania recently rejected the far right, Poland went the other way. Reichardt outlines the deep polarization and cultural rifts still haunting the country after years of democratic backsliding under PiS. Despite Poland’s strong economy and strategic importance to NATO and the EU, its democratic recovery remains fragile. As Reichardt writes, the outcome—whichever way it goes—will determine whether Poland can continue rebuilding its liberal institutions or slide further into illiberal nationalism.

Surreal encounters with Gene Simmons and Jimmy Wales

Simmons bristled almost immediately at my presence, interrupting the interview by my colleague to demand, “Who’s this guy?” He claimed his unusually wide peripheral vision made it impossible to tolerate someone “hovering,” and insisted I move out of his line of sight. The atmosphere turned icy. Under glares from Simmons and his reality show crew, I slunk behind the camera like a reprimanded child, feeling criminalized. As for Wales, he believed in the future of news. When we spoke some years ago at Italy’s Villa d’Este, he predicted that digital micropayments and mobile platforms might finally give journalism a sustainable business model — one where readers could pay a little, easily, and support what they valued. It hasn’t saved the industry, but he wasn’t entirely wrong either. Some of you do pay for journalism. And if Jimmy Wales was even half-right, you’d be upgrading to a paid subscription to Ask Questions Later right about now.